Where We Go From Here: Seven Investor Lessons From Ukraine

Yesterday, I published a self-audit of a blog post I wrote 3 years ago ("War in Ukraine: The Long-Term Impact", August 16, 2022). What emerges in hindsight: I systematically undervalued adaptive capacity of political and market systems when existential stakes are present. Cynicism about inertia was a bias — understandable given decades of EU under-delivery! — but wrong … Continue reading Where We Go From Here: Seven Investor Lessons From Ukraine →

The ZOO Scenario – a Stress Test for AI Design.

Two weeks ago I posted a short provocation on LinkedIn: what if AI decided the safest way to protect humanity was to remove us from the system? It struck a nerve — not because people thought it was likely, but because they saw how easy it is to design ourselves into that corner without noticing. … Continue reading The ZOO Scenario – a Stress Test for AI Design. →

Trust in Venture Capital: Why GPs Fail

Last week I met with Brendan Baker to exchange notes on venture capital observations -- and catch up with him on joining Rackhouse as Partner. Brendan asked me why I think most GPs fail - quite an open-ended question, and I took it as "why do most GPs fail to raise more than 1 fund." … Continue reading Trust in Venture Capital: Why GPs Fail →

Essential Readings — Behavioral Finance in Venture Capital

After my post "Who’s on the Other Side of That Trade?" a few weeks ago, I got some questions how to go deeper into behavioral finance in venture capital. Here are some links: Essential Reading David Tuckett – Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical UncertaintyDirectly relevant to venture investing under uncertainty. Explains … Continue reading Essential Readings — Behavioral Finance in Venture Capital →

Mastering Conference Note-Taking for Investment Insights and Alpha

transparent plexiglass discs for measuring cylinder head volume

Concept: Taking notes is not about capturing what was said. It is not about capturing "insights". It is all about capturing what creates alpha. On Talk and Panel Selection Make sure that more than half of your time is spent talking with people (d'oh!). Choose 80% of talks in areas that should be front and … Continue reading Mastering Conference Note-Taking for Investment Insights and Alpha →

Recycling — A Systemic Narrative Failure

a plastic bin with shredded aluminum waste

Recycling innovation — especially in the mining sector and rare earth elements (REEs) — is held back by a deeply entangled web of technological inertia, misaligned economic incentives, and systemic narrative failures. Not by a lack of venture capital interest per se. The prevailing narrative has long equated recycling with waste management, not strategic resource … Continue reading Recycling — A Systemic Narrative Failure →

Who’s on the Other Side of That Trade?

emergency stop button and input panel on a Hwacheon Vesta 1500 CNC machine

I am befuddled why "Defense Investing" is treated differently from "Investing". As if the rules of behavioral economics don't apply anymore when national security is at stake. You are still offering an investment product to investors. You still have to acknowledge all realities of Conviction, Cognitive Bias, and the subtle zero-sum of early-stage investing. The … Continue reading Who’s on the Other Side of That Trade? →

Cognitive Breach: Defense of Cognitive Infrastructure

red emergency stop button on Haas CNC machine panel

I've written about Cognitive Bias and Narrative Risk and Defense. More specifically, I've written about AI System Integrity and AI Trauma. The implications are clear (at least to me): Cognitive infrastructure—how people make sense of information—is now a primary attack surface. Cybersecurity must evolve to protect not just data and access but also belief systems … Continue reading Cognitive Breach: Defense of Cognitive Infrastructure →

Interrogating AI: A Guide to Maintaining System Integrity

Engaging in natural, fluid conversations with AI often leads us to overlook the intricate context required for such interactions. Striving for a human-like dialogue without tailoring our prompts to the AI's design can inadvertently open doors to subtle manipulations—such as covert subversion, goal misalignment, or strategic deception. This risk escalates with lengthier prompts and extensive … Continue reading Interrogating AI: A Guide to Maintaining System Integrity →

Data is only keeping our perceptual best guesses in check.

I often listen to the talks from The Royal Institute, sometimes while driving, like a podcast. A recent one in my playlist was a re-discovered talk by Anil Seth, "Is Reality a Controlled Hallucination?" - I remember his talk at TED four or five years back. We think perception is a process of reading out … Continue reading Data is only keeping our perceptual best guesses in check. →