Two weeks ago I sat on a panel on "Defense & commercial revenues of tech startups, how to balance?" -- Dual-Use and Defense startups. The other panelists were Jake Chapman @ Marquee VC, Matt Kaplan @ Shield Capital, Chris Moran @ Lockheed Martin Ventures, and Kris Vulgan @ Ferocity Capital. It was a marathon panel … Continue reading National Resilience Demands Capacity, Not Contract Chasing
Yesterday, I published a self-audit of a blog post I wrote 3 years ago ("War in Ukraine: The Long-Term Impact", August 16, 2022). What emerges in hindsight: I systematically undervalued adaptive capacity of political and market systems when existential stakes are present. Cynicism about inertia was a bias — understandable given decades of EU under-delivery! — but wrong … Continue reading Where We Go From Here: Seven Investor Lessons From Ukraine
The best early-stage venture capital (VC) investors in defense and resilience over the next decade will outperform by doing what current mainstream VC still structurally avoids: investing with operational patience, systems-level clarity, and moral clarity — under radical uncertainty. Here's what they’ll get right, and the key success factors that enable >5x+ returns, true alpha, … Continue reading Generating 5x+ Alpha in Defense/Resilience VC
Banks could treat quantum compute capacity as a deterrent in global financial conflict, like nuclear early-warning systems, but for real-time risk asymmetry. I recently caught up with the Bundesverband Deutscher Banken on the future of quantum computing for banking in Germany. For context, German banks play an outsized role in economic orchestration, not just capital … Continue reading Quantum Finance as Game-Theoretic Deterrence
Undergrounds are clandestine, resilient systems that enable sustained resistance, asymmetric warfare, or covert statecraft. Historically embedded in insurgency, resistance, and revolutionary doctrine, they now re-emerge as critical enablers in grey-zone and high-tech conflict.
A Red Team FRAGPLAN to investigate areas for venture capital and traditional innovations in a hypothetical indo-pacific conflict.
After my post "Who’s on the Other Side of That Trade?" a few weeks ago, I got some questions how to go deeper into behavioral finance in venture capital. Here are some links: Essential Reading David Tuckett – Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical UncertaintyDirectly relevant to venture investing under uncertainty. Explains … Continue reading Essential Readings — Behavioral Finance in Venture Capital
The content discusses the evaluation of Portal Space, a startup developing maneuverable spacecraft, following their $17.5 million fundraising. The author outlines a five-step analysis framework focusing on competitors, company challenges, investor perspectives, and potential secret weapons. Portal Space aims to revolutionize orbital agility but faces significant strategic vulnerabilities and must succeed in market education to secure investor confidence.
not every tech-enabled business needs venture capital. It's time for a new financial product tailored to the needs of critical infrastructure and national resilience.
The backbone of dual-use manufacturing in the US is broken, an echo of Eisenhower-era infrastructure warnings, but for deep tech. As you might know, I've been working full-time in a sub $50M annual revenue CNC machine shop in a seedy part of town in Berkeley, CA, since I left the NATO Innovation Fund. Half our … Continue reading Dual-Use Manufacturing: It’s Not That We Can’t Build — We Just Don’t Know Who Should!
