Two weeks ago I sat on a panel on "Defense & commercial revenues of tech startups, how to balance?" -- Dual-Use and Defense startups. The other panelists were Jake Chapman @ Marquee VC, Matt Kaplan @ Shield Capital, Chris Moran @ Lockheed Martin Ventures, and Kris Vulgan @ Ferocity Capital. It was a marathon panel … Continue reading National Resilience Demands Capacity, Not Contract Chasing
Yesterday, I published a self-audit of a blog post I wrote 3 years ago ("War in Ukraine: The Long-Term Impact", August 16, 2022). What emerges in hindsight: I systematically undervalued adaptive capacity of political and market systems when existential stakes are present. Cynicism about inertia was a bias — understandable given decades of EU under-delivery! — but wrong … Continue reading Where We Go From Here: Seven Investor Lessons From Ukraine
The best early-stage venture capital (VC) investors in defense and resilience over the next decade will outperform by doing what current mainstream VC still structurally avoids: investing with operational patience, systems-level clarity, and moral clarity — under radical uncertainty. Here's what they’ll get right, and the key success factors that enable >5x+ returns, true alpha, … Continue reading Generating 5x+ Alpha in Defense/Resilience VC
Quantum computing can close the SME credit gap in Germany by resolving systemic data asymmetries that legacy financial institutions and classical machine learning models cannot overcome. In doing so, it could realign ESG-linked capital with high-quality, underfunded industrial firms at the heart of Germany’s economic resilience.[Thinkstorm Thesis] Context: Why SME Lending Is Broken — Especially … Continue reading Quantum Computing: Fixing SME Lending in Germany
Last week I met with Brendan Baker to exchange notes on venture capital observations -- and catch up with him on joining Rackhouse as Partner. Brendan asked me why I think most GPs fail - quite an open-ended question, and I took it as "why do most GPs fail to raise more than 1 fund." … Continue reading Trust in Venture Capital: Why GPs Fail
Banks could treat quantum compute capacity as a deterrent in global financial conflict, like nuclear early-warning systems, but for real-time risk asymmetry. I recently caught up with the Bundesverband Deutscher Banken on the future of quantum computing for banking in Germany. For context, German banks play an outsized role in economic orchestration, not just capital … Continue reading Quantum Finance as Game-Theoretic Deterrence
The post discusses feedback regarding memos on research, emphasizing they shouldn't simplify complex ideas. Successful memos require intuitive arguments for policymakers, aligning with political agendas, and allowing graceful retreats for stakeholders. The author outlines effective practices using examples from reputable sources and warns against overcomplication that may hinder support.
I’ve written or edited memos for both Hill staffers and DoD / DHS and other security agencies. While both a Hill staffer and a DoD audience might be engaged on the same issue (e.g., national resilience, dual-use policy, or industrial capacity), the positioning, tone, and framing must differ to match their institutional mandate, time horizon, … Continue reading The Art of Defense Policy Memo Writing
Measuring progress at an early-stage deep tech startup in space or propulsion or material sciences is very different from measuring SaaS startups. The goals are the same: you want to measure technology/product progress; you want to measure customer engagement and "sales funnels" for your prospects; and you want to measure progress for the next round … Continue reading 5 Venture Capital Metrics for DeepTech Startups
The content discusses the evaluation of Portal Space, a startup developing maneuverable spacecraft, following their $17.5 million fundraising. The author outlines a five-step analysis framework focusing on competitors, company challenges, investor perspectives, and potential secret weapons. Portal Space aims to revolutionize orbital agility but faces significant strategic vulnerabilities and must succeed in market education to secure investor confidence.
