Markets, Politics, and the Speed of Shock: Lessons from Ukraine

In a blog post from August 16, 2022, War in Ukraine: The Long-Term Impact, I made an economic and investment forecast. It was not a prediction, but it a directional framing of consequences under tension based on my observations on market drivers. Capital allocation is national security. Venture’s edge isn’t alpha—it’s foresight operationalized under uncertainty.Thinkstorm … Continue reading Markets, Politics, and the Speed of Shock: Lessons from Ukraine →

Quantum Computing: Fixing SME Lending in Germany

Quantum computing can close the SME credit gap in Germany by resolving systemic data asymmetries that legacy financial institutions and classical machine learning models cannot overcome. In doing so, it could realign ESG-linked capital with high-quality, underfunded industrial firms at the heart of Germany’s economic resilience.[Thinkstorm Thesis] Context: Why SME Lending Is Broken — Especially … Continue reading Quantum Computing: Fixing SME Lending in Germany →

Quantum Finance as Game-Theoretic Deterrence

Banks could treat quantum compute capacity as a deterrent in global financial conflict, like nuclear early-warning systems, but for real-time risk asymmetry. I recently caught up with the Bundesverband Deutscher Banken on the future of quantum computing for banking in Germany. For context, German banks play an outsized role in economic orchestration, not just capital … Continue reading Quantum Finance as Game-Theoretic Deterrence →

Undergrounds-as-a-System: Doctrine Map for Resilient Conflict Architecture

Investing at the edge of what's possible—and what must be made real.

Undergrounds are clandestine, resilient systems that enable sustained resistance, asymmetric warfare, or covert statecraft. Historically embedded in insurgency, resistance, and revolutionary doctrine, they now re-emerge as critical enablers in grey-zone and high-tech conflict.

Red Team FRAGPLAN: “Typhoon Blade”

Rebuilding NATO capacity—one system at a time.

A Red Team FRAGPLAN to investigate areas for venture capital and traditional innovations in a hypothetical indo-pacific conflict.

Europe and NATO: Not Ready for Russian Threat?

Rebuilding American capacity — one system at a time.

[usually I post about something venture capital on Tuesdays. Today's article by Atlantic Council's Fred Kempe made me switch up a few things -- stay with me, it'll be about venture capital...] This is Part I. Part II tomorrow, Part III Thursday. In his Atlantic Council article, "Europe is ‘not ready’ for the Russian threat. … Continue reading Europe and NATO: Not Ready for Russian Threat? →

Stop the “Innovation Theater”! A Case For Infrastructure Memory And Manufacturing Depth

"Innovation Theater" highlights the U.S. tech ecosystem’s focus on temporary initiatives without long-term commitment. This leads to symptoms like abandoned projects and unscalable startups. The importance of “infrastructure memory” and “manufacturing depth” is emphasized, advocating for a dual-track model that balances disruptive innovation with resilient production capabilities.

What if Capacity Building Starts in the Middle? Lessons from Nations with Industrial Memory

The content discusses how Japan, India, and Israel successfully implemented industrial policies through state-led strategies, fostering economic resilience and innovation. It contrasts their approaches with the U.S.'s market-dependent model, suggesting that the U.S. could benefit from a more integrated and strategic industrial policy to enhance resilience and promote long-term growth.

On the Workbench: Portal Space

The content discusses the evaluation of Portal Space, a startup developing maneuverable spacecraft, following their $17.5 million fundraising. The author outlines a five-step analysis framework focusing on competitors, company challenges, investor perspectives, and potential secret weapons. Portal Space aims to revolutionize orbital agility but faces significant strategic vulnerabilities and must succeed in market education to secure investor confidence.

Recycling — A Systemic Narrative Failure

a plastic bin with shredded aluminum waste

Recycling innovation — especially in the mining sector and rare earth elements (REEs) — is held back by a deeply entangled web of technological inertia, misaligned economic incentives, and systemic narrative failures. Not by a lack of venture capital interest per se. The prevailing narrative has long equated recycling with waste management, not strategic resource … Continue reading Recycling — A Systemic Narrative Failure →