not every tech-enabled business needs venture capital. It's time for a new financial product tailored to the needs of critical infrastructure and national resilience.
Not Every Missile Needs a Cap Table: The $6 Billion Misallocation
Category: Market Structure
Dual-Use Manufacturing: It’s Not That We Can’t Build — We Just Don’t Know Who Should!
The backbone of dual-use manufacturing in the US is broken, an echo of Eisenhower-era infrastructure warnings, but for deep tech. As you might know, I've been working full-time in a sub $50M annual revenue CNC machine shop in a seedy part of town in Berkeley, CA, since I left the NATO Innovation Fund. Half our … Continue reading Dual-Use Manufacturing: It’s Not That We Can’t Build — We Just Don’t Know Who Should!
Why Layers Lie: Careful with Overlays in Defense Resilience
Complexity masquerades as flexibility— but it often creates the very fragility it claims to prevent. No one likes high fragmentation and complexity. Many small vendors lead to inefficient purchasing decisions, and someone needs to train you on all these new machines and vendors. You could start releasing design documents on usage patterns. Or perhaps there … Continue reading Why Layers Lie: Careful with Overlays in Defense Resilience
Six Innovation Fronts that Matter in Defense Tech
[Avoiding Hype, Serving the Mission] Sidenote: I had the pleasure of doing a (German) podcast interview with an incredibly smart host and experienced interviewer. It just aired today .. which I was not sure of it ever would, because (A) I don't think I was very succinct; and (B) there was very clear feedback that … Continue reading Six Innovation Fronts that Matter in Defense Tech
European Defense Manufacturing Value Chain: Detailed Segmentation
"Hey, real quick: what's a good way to think about value chains in Defense in Europe?" Oh boy. Defense is not an industry or a sector. And it depends to whom your talking: Various detailed segmentations are often used by defense ministries, procurement agencies (e.g., OCCAR, NSPA), and trade associations like ASD Europe. But here … Continue reading European Defense Manufacturing Value Chain: Detailed Segmentation
Navigating the Complexities of Defense Private Equity: Unique Challenges and Elevated Risks
“Why are you not convinced by trillions of dollars? What has happened to your business instinct? Are you stupid?” -- Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of NATO's Military Committee, 2024 (via Financial Times) This was addressed to Western financial institutions during a NATO industry forum in Washington, where Bauer expressed frustration at the persistent reluctance of … Continue reading Navigating the Complexities of Defense Private Equity: Unique Challenges and Elevated Risks
How Increased NATO Spending Affects European Defense Industry
Defense investments are experiencing a remarkable surge across both public and private markets. Venture capital funding in defense technology has reached unprecedented levels, with European defense and security tech startups securing a record $5.2 billion in 2024, marking a 24% increase from the previous year [here and here]. This trend is further underscored by NATO … Continue reading How Increased NATO Spending Affects European Defense Industry
War in Ukraine: The Long-Term Impact
For some reason, just because I'm German, everyone seems to think that I know the impact of the war in Ukraine onto capital markets. I don't. Well, I didn't. Here we go: Bifurcation of economies; return of regional networks and economies; strong US dollar; bifurcation of energy markets; increased military investments
How to think about risk in Blockchain, Private Equity, Public Markets
Last night a dinner discussion turned again to private equity markets, blockchain, stablecoins, and money. The argument went that public markets had less risk because they have stricter audits, governance. In private equity, you also have to find a buyer and negotiate a price and terms of your private equity stake. Stocks that are traded … Continue reading How to think about risk in Blockchain, Private Equity, Public Markets
$125M Evergreen Fund
When I came out of my own startup in 2002, I decided to focus my efforts on public land preservation and low-income housing. I signed a bunch of different (financial) products, and quite frankly didn't know much about US products, closed-end funds, and tax implications. When I had to restructure our family trust, I had … Continue reading $125M Evergreen Fund