Two weeks ago I posted a short provocation on LinkedIn: what if AI decided the safest way to protect humanity was to remove us from the system? It struck a nerve — not because people thought it was likely, but because they saw how easy it is to design ourselves into that corner without noticing. … Continue reading The ZOO Scenario – a Stress Test for AI Design.
Quantum computing can close the SME credit gap in Germany by resolving systemic data asymmetries that legacy financial institutions and classical machine learning models cannot overcome. In doing so, it could realign ESG-linked capital with high-quality, underfunded industrial firms at the heart of Germany’s economic resilience.[Thinkstorm Thesis] Context: Why SME Lending Is Broken — Especially … Continue reading Quantum Computing: Fixing SME Lending in Germany
Last week I met with Brendan Baker to exchange notes on venture capital observations -- and catch up with him on joining Rackhouse as Partner. Brendan asked me why I think most GPs fail - quite an open-ended question, and I took it as "why do most GPs fail to raise more than 1 fund." … Continue reading Trust in Venture Capital: Why GPs Fail
Banks could treat quantum compute capacity as a deterrent in global financial conflict, like nuclear early-warning systems, but for real-time risk asymmetry. I recently caught up with the Bundesverband Deutscher Banken on the future of quantum computing for banking in Germany. For context, German banks play an outsized role in economic orchestration, not just capital … Continue reading Quantum Finance as Game-Theoretic Deterrence
[This is one of the first 'Tactical Notes' - short-format observations that I jotted down some time ago, where I feel that this snippet is enough and no long format essay is necessary] Michael Polanyi’s notion of tacit knowledge (what we know but cannot fully articulate), know-how resides in practice, habits, culture, and embodied skills … Continue reading Tactical Notes: Tacit Knowledge — What We Know But Cannot Fully Articulate
"Innovation Theater" highlights the U.S. tech ecosystem’s focus on temporary initiatives without long-term commitment. This leads to symptoms like abandoned projects and unscalable startups. The importance of “infrastructure memory” and “manufacturing depth” is emphasized, advocating for a dual-track model that balances disruptive innovation with resilient production capabilities.
The content discusses how Japan, India, and Israel successfully implemented industrial policies through state-led strategies, fostering economic resilience and innovation. It contrasts their approaches with the U.S.'s market-dependent model, suggesting that the U.S. could benefit from a more integrated and strategic industrial policy to enhance resilience and promote long-term growth.
The content discusses the evaluation of Portal Space, a startup developing maneuverable spacecraft, following their $17.5 million fundraising. The author outlines a five-step analysis framework focusing on competitors, company challenges, investor perspectives, and potential secret weapons. Portal Space aims to revolutionize orbital agility but faces significant strategic vulnerabilities and must succeed in market education to secure investor confidence.
Complexity masquerades as flexibility— but it often creates the very fragility it claims to prevent. No one likes high fragmentation and complexity. Many small vendors lead to inefficient purchasing decisions, and someone needs to train you on all these new machines and vendors. You could start releasing design documents on usage patterns. Or perhaps there … Continue reading Why Layers Lie: Careful with Overlays in Defense Resilience
In private equity we throw around convictions a lot, or talk about what we believe. But: that's not the same. Conviction in defense is not measured by capability alone, but by credible intent to act. The same applies to venture capital: your portfolio is a map of what you’re willing to stand behind when it … Continue reading Writing The Check Isn’t Just An Act Of Confidence — It’s A Signal Of Ethical Clarity.
