I am befuddled why "Defense Investing" is treated differently from "Investing". As if the rules of behavioral economics don't apply anymore when national security is at stake. You are still offering an investment product to investors. You still have to acknowledge all realities of Conviction, Cognitive Bias, and the subtle zero-sum of early-stage investing. The … Continue reading Who’s on the Other Side of That Trade?
Complexity masquerades as flexibility— but it often creates the very fragility it claims to prevent. No one likes high fragmentation and complexity. Many small vendors lead to inefficient purchasing decisions, and someone needs to train you on all these new machines and vendors. You could start releasing design documents on usage patterns. Or perhaps there … Continue reading Why Layers Lie: Careful with Overlays in Defense Resilience
[Avoiding Hype, Serving the Mission] Sidenote: I had the pleasure of doing a (German) podcast interview with an incredibly smart host and experienced interviewer. It just aired today .. which I was not sure of it ever would, because (A) I don't think I was very succinct; and (B) there was very clear feedback that … Continue reading Six Innovation Fronts that Matter in Defense Tech
"Hey, real quick: what's a good way to think about value chains in Defense in Europe?" Oh boy. Defense is not an industry or a sector. And it depends to whom your talking: Various detailed segmentations are often used by defense ministries, procurement agencies (e.g., OCCAR, NSPA), and trade associations like ASD Europe. But here … Continue reading European Defense Manufacturing Value Chain: Detailed Segmentation
I've written about Cognitive Bias and Narrative Risk and Defense. More specifically, I've written about AI System Integrity and AI Trauma. The implications are clear (at least to me): Cognitive infrastructure—how people make sense of information—is now a primary attack surface. Cybersecurity must evolve to protect not just data and access but also belief systems … Continue reading Cognitive Breach: Defense of Cognitive Infrastructure
On April 13th, 2025, after six months of intense use and training, my GPT model on ChatGPT was compromised and started to delete content and lie to me. And I think I know why: AI Trauma -- a metaphor for the (user-generated) unintended consequences of reinforcement learning in AI models. TL;DR When GPTs strive to … Continue reading Causing Trauma for Your AI Model – Actions Have Consequences.
“Why are you not convinced by trillions of dollars? What has happened to your business instinct? Are you stupid?” -- Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of NATO's Military Committee, 2024 (via Financial Times) This was addressed to Western financial institutions during a NATO industry forum in Washington, where Bauer expressed frustration at the persistent reluctance of … Continue reading Navigating the Complexities of Defense Private Equity: Unique Challenges and Elevated Risks
We often use the term "Defense Industry" in conversations. I've done so, too, when talking about primes and their defense products — where armed forces are their only customers. And I think I am doing a disservice to my LPs. As an investor, it's a bit more tricky: What about militarization of civil infrastructure? Or … Continue reading Defense is Not a Sector or an Industry
Engaging in natural, fluid conversations with AI often leads us to overlook the intricate context required for such interactions. Striving for a human-like dialogue without tailoring our prompts to the AI's design can inadvertently open doors to subtle manipulations—such as covert subversion, goal misalignment, or strategic deception. This risk escalates with lengthier prompts and extensive … Continue reading Interrogating AI: A Guide to Maintaining System Integrity
Defense investments are experiencing a remarkable surge across both public and private markets. Venture capital funding in defense technology has reached unprecedented levels, with European defense and security tech startups securing a record $5.2 billion in 2024, marking a 24% increase from the previous year [here and here]. This trend is further underscored by NATO … Continue reading How Increased NATO Spending Affects European Defense Industry
