Tag: gp observations

Markets, Politics, and the Speed of Shock: Lessons from Ukraine

In a blog post from August 16, 2022, War in Ukraine: The Long-Term Impact, I made an economic and investment forecast. It was not a prediction, but it a directional framing of consequences under tension based on my observations on market drivers. Capital allocation is national security. Venture’s edge isn’t alpha—it’s foresight operationalized under uncertainty.Thinkstorm … Continue reading Markets, Politics, and the Speed of Shock: Lessons from Ukraine →

Generating 5x+ Alpha in Defense/Resilience VC

The best early-stage venture capital (VC) investors in defense and resilience over the next decade will outperform by doing what current mainstream VC still structurally avoids: investing with operational patience, systems-level clarity, and moral clarity — under radical uncertainty. Here's what they’ll get right, and the key success factors that enable >5x+ returns, true alpha, … Continue reading Generating 5x+ Alpha in Defense/Resilience VC →

Trust in Venture Capital: Why GPs Fail

Last week I met with Brendan Baker to exchange notes on venture capital observations -- and catch up with him on joining Rackhouse as Partner. Brendan asked me why I think most GPs fail - quite an open-ended question, and I took it as "why do most GPs fail to raise more than 1 fund." … Continue reading Trust in Venture Capital: Why GPs Fail →

5 Venture Capital Metrics for DeepTech Startups

dial indicators

Measuring progress at an early-stage deep tech startup in space or propulsion or material sciences is very different from measuring SaaS startups. The goals are the same: you want to measure technology/product progress; you want to measure customer engagement and "sales funnels" for your prospects; and you want to measure progress for the next round … Continue reading 5 Venture Capital Metrics for DeepTech Startups →

Tactical Notes: Tacit Knowledge — What We Know But Cannot Fully Articulate

research lab for defense, security, resilience

[This is one of the first 'Tactical Notes' - short-format observations that I jotted down some time ago, where I feel that this snippet is enough and no long format essay is necessary] Michael Polanyi’s notion of tacit knowledge (what we know but cannot fully articulate), know-how resides in practice, habits, culture, and embodied skills … Continue reading Tactical Notes: Tacit Knowledge — What We Know But Cannot Fully Articulate →

Tactical Notes: The Weight of Capital Alone is not Proof of Superior Judgement

research lab for defense, security, resilience

[This is one of the first 'Tactical Notes' - short-format observations that I jotted down some time ago, where I feel that this snippet is enough and no long format essay is necessary] The presence of capital events (funding rounds, M&A, fund strategy) can sometimes be over-ascribed to individual influence unless the narrative shows how … Continue reading Tactical Notes: The Weight of Capital Alone is not Proof of Superior Judgement →

Tactical Notes: Access is Earned, Not Expected

research lab for defense, security, resilience

[This is one of the first 'Tactical Notes' - short-format observations that I jotted down some time ago, where I feel that this snippet is enough and no long format essay is necessary] We are not entitled to capital. Or conviction. LPs operate under uncertainty just as we do. In a world of competitive convergence, … Continue reading Tactical Notes: Access is Earned, Not Expected →

Communication, Easy as PIE: Problem, Impact, Exposure

historic red alfa romeo race car crossing the finish line at Sears Point Raceway

I just recently heard the interview with Meghan Reynolds, Partner and Head of Capital Formation & Talent at Altimeter Capital. Meghan acknowledges that venture capital is hard, driven by outliers, and rarely do we have a home run, but often many failures (large and small). She has a pretty simple and brilliant framework for communicating … Continue reading Communication, Easy as PIE: Problem, Impact, Exposure →