Two weeks ago I sat on a panel on "Defense & commercial revenues of tech startups, how to balance?" -- Dual-Use and Defense startups. The other panelists were Jake Chapman @ Marquee VC, Matt Kaplan @ Shield Capital, Chris Moran @ Lockheed Martin Ventures, and Kris Vulgan @ Ferocity Capital. It was a marathon panel … Continue reading National Resilience Demands Capacity, Not Contract Chasing
Yesterday, I published a self-audit of a blog post I wrote 3 years ago ("War in Ukraine: The Long-Term Impact", August 16, 2022). What emerges in hindsight: I systematically undervalued adaptive capacity of political and market systems when existential stakes are present. Cynicism about inertia was a bias — understandable given decades of EU under-delivery! — but wrong … Continue reading Where We Go From Here: Seven Investor Lessons From Ukraine
In a blog post from August 16, 2022, War in Ukraine: The Long-Term Impact, I made an economic and investment forecast. It was not a prediction, but it a directional framing of consequences under tension based on my observations on market drivers. Capital allocation is national security. Venture’s edge isn’t alpha—it’s foresight operationalized under uncertainty.Thinkstorm … Continue reading Markets, Politics, and the Speed of Shock: Lessons from Ukraine
The best early-stage venture capital (VC) investors in defense and resilience over the next decade will outperform by doing what current mainstream VC still structurally avoids: investing with operational patience, systems-level clarity, and moral clarity — under radical uncertainty. Here's what they’ll get right, and the key success factors that enable >5x+ returns, true alpha, … Continue reading Generating 5x+ Alpha in Defense/Resilience VC
Last week I met with Brendan Baker to exchange notes on venture capital observations -- and catch up with him on joining Rackhouse as Partner. Brendan asked me why I think most GPs fail - quite an open-ended question, and I took it as "why do most GPs fail to raise more than 1 fund." … Continue reading Trust in Venture Capital: Why GPs Fail
Banks could treat quantum compute capacity as a deterrent in global financial conflict, like nuclear early-warning systems, but for real-time risk asymmetry. I recently caught up with the Bundesverband Deutscher Banken on the future of quantum computing for banking in Germany. For context, German banks play an outsized role in economic orchestration, not just capital … Continue reading Quantum Finance as Game-Theoretic Deterrence
Undergrounds are clandestine, resilient systems that enable sustained resistance, asymmetric warfare, or covert statecraft. Historically embedded in insurgency, resistance, and revolutionary doctrine, they now re-emerge as critical enablers in grey-zone and high-tech conflict.
A Red Team FRAGPLAN to investigate areas for venture capital and traditional innovations in a hypothetical indo-pacific conflict.
[usually I post about something venture capital on Tuesdays. Today's article by Atlantic Council's Fred Kempe made me switch up a few things -- stay with me, it'll be about venture capital...] This is Part I. Part II tomorrow, Part III Thursday. In his Atlantic Council article, "Europe is ‘not ready’ for the Russian threat. … Continue reading Europe and NATO: Not Ready for Russian Threat?
After my post "Who’s on the Other Side of That Trade?" a few weeks ago, I got some questions how to go deeper into behavioral finance in venture capital. Here are some links: Essential Reading David Tuckett – Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical UncertaintyDirectly relevant to venture investing under uncertainty. Explains … Continue reading Essential Readings — Behavioral Finance in Venture Capital
