After my post “Who’s on the Other Side of That Trade?” a few weeks ago, I got some questions how to go deeper into behavioral finance in venture capital. Here are some links:
Essential Reading
David Tuckett – Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical Uncertainty
Directly relevant to venture investing under uncertainty. Explains how affect, narrative, and belief shape decisions.
Howard Marks – The Most Important Thing & his memos
Particularly: “Sea Change” and “Something of Value” for decision integrity under shifting macro conditions.
Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky – Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
The foundation. Framing effects, availability bias, anchoring — all core to how VCs misjudge markets and timing… this might be a bit dry 😉
Michael Mauboussin – More Than You Know & essays from Credit Suisse/Counterpoint Global
Particularly his papers on “Expectations Investing”, “The Paradox of Skill”, and “Untangling Skill and Luck.”
Annie Duke – Thinking in Bets
Ex-poker pro, excellent framing on probabilistic reasoning and information asymmetry in high-stakes environments.
Podcasts
Invest Like the Best – episodes with:
- Bill Gurley (Benchmark) – on valuation, decision traps
- Sarah Tavel – on thesis clarity and “slope over intercept”
- Michael Mauboussin – on base rates and decision hygiene
Infinite Loops (Jim O’Shaughnessy) – for decision science meets investing philosophy
Great episodes with Rory Sutherland, Annie Duke, and Tuckett-style thinkers.
The Knowledge Project (Shane Parrish / Farnam Street)
Decision-making, biases, mental models — often featuring investors and behavioral experts.
The Foresight Podcast (New Science of Prediction)
Occasionally features academic decision theorists like Tuckett, or real-world investors rethinking conviction.