This is Part II, Part III tomorrow.
Yesterday I highlighted an imbalance in strategic approach and setup between Russia and Europe; and China and US. Today I present a Red Team FRAGPLAN to investigate areas for venture capital and traditional innovations. If that wasn’t clear: “Red Teaming” means we take the side of the PLA and try to exploit strategic differences in our warfare and systems.
Objective:
Exploit U.S./allied over-dependence on legacy naval mass, satellite ISR, and central C2 by deploying a tiered swarm to overwhelm, confuse, and disable force projection within 96 hours of kinetic initiation.
PLA Red Team Commander’s Intent:
Achieve temporary naval overmatch in first island chain and delay any carrier-based intervention force through:
- Cognitive paralysis (decoy, data, and channel flooding)
- Platform saturation (multi-axis, multi-domain strikes)
- Strategic ambiguity (deniable cyber/space attacks to slow U.S. response)
1. TASK ORG – SWARM TIERS
| Tier | Platform Class | Count | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha | USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels) | 1,000+ | Sensor spoofing, EW projection, decoy wake pattern |
| Bravo | UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles) | 300–500 | Harbor mining, hull damage, acoustic noise masking |
| Charlie | FPV Drones (1st Person View) | 10,000+ | Munitions delivery on logistics and sensor nodes |
| Delta | Light Maritime Militias | 3,000 boats | ISR masking, bait, sacrificial misdirection |
| Echo | Commercial Container Killbox | ~50 ships | Preloaded with loitering munitions, C-UAS denial tech, decoys |
2. CONOPS (Concept of Operations)
Phase I: Masking & Momentum (D–7 to D–1)
- Massed “fishing” and container traffic shifts into first island chain.
- Activate civilian ISR suppression network via distributed HF jamming buoys.
- Cyber-recon of Western logistics ports and satellite ground relays.
Phase II: Saturation & Deception (D0–D+1)
- Simultaneous launch of 1,000+ Alpha/Bravo drones from 6 key vector zones (Spratlys, Paracels, Pingtan, Wenzhou, Dongsha, and container ships).
- Maritime militias create artificial ‘collision corridors’ to trigger U.S. de-escalation protocols.
- FPV drones target radar domes, ESM nodes, and deck crew on alert U.S. ships.
Phase III: Disruption & Denial (D+2–D+4)
- UUVs create false sonar returns around U.S. submarines and disrupt underwater communication cables.
- Loitering munitions deployed from disguised merchant ships to hit port fuel nodes (e.g., Changi, Yokosuka, Darwin).
- EW jamming of Link-16 / SATCOM using reusable low-orbit balloons with angle-agnostic emitters.
Phase IV: Cognitive Collapse (D+4 onward)
- Western ISR overwhelmed with false returns, ambiguous engagements, and conflicting attribution (civilian? military?).
- Public narratives (Twitter/TikTok/Weibo) flooded with misattributed footage of ship damage, reinforcing fog of war.
- Cyber-attacks initiate disinformation targeting U.S. and Taiwanese civilian systems (e.g., train, finance, telecom).
3. INTEL ESTIMATE
- U.S. satellites blind in first 36–48 hours due to ASAT + dazzle attacks.
- 7th Fleet C2 delayed 12–24 hours due to comm-layer denial and swarm risk to replenishment vessels.
- Taiwan’s layered air defense intact but sensor-fused targeting degraded by FPV and maritime drone saturation.
4. RED TEAM ASSUMPTIONS
- U.S. will hesitate to destroy gray-zone assets (fishing vessels, civilian ships).
- Allied coordination (e.g., Japan, Australia, UK) bottlenecked at political layer.
- Media saturation + ambiguity = delayed Western force posture, loss of escalation initiative.
5. ENDSTATE
- PLAN establishes temporary “Swarm Sea Denial Bubble”.
- U.S. CVNs held at standoff range or delayed in Guam/Singapore.
- Strategic window created for a decapitation strike or a “fait accompli” political seizure of Taiwan islets or digital infrastructure.
Implications for NATO/Allied Readiness
let’s consider:
- Maritime C2 redundancy without satellites.
- Counter-swarm doctrine (UAV-on-UAV interdiction).
- Civilian/maritime overlay detection (AI + multispectral radar).
- Real-time adaptive kill chain for ambiguous contacts.
For each of these areas, I’ll look at venture-backable startups versus traditional infrastructure.
1. Maritime C2 Redundancy Without Satellites
Venture-Backable Startups (Dual-Use, High-Growth Potential)
| Company Type | Description | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Edge mesh C2 overlays | Decentralized maritime command/control systems using HF, VLF, and LEO fallback nodes | Examples: resilient mesh (think Helium meets DARPA), local radio packet fallback |
| Software-defined comms platforms | Field-configurable waveforms that switch between SATCOM, HF, 5G, troposcatter | Must prove use in contested comms and integrate with NATO waveform standards |
| AI-based comms deconfliction | Algorithms for multi-band, multi-path optimization in real-time during EM-spectrum denial | Hyper-growth possible if adopted as NATO-standard plug-in |
Traditional Infrastructure / Non-Venture
| System Type | Description |
|---|---|
| LEO satellite constellations | Starlink-like sovereign constellations (French Athena-Fidus, German Heinrich Hertz) |
| Submarine fiber relays | Protected, sovereign seabed fiber as terrestrial fallback |
| Hardened ground stations | NATO/Allied SATCOM infrastructure that is immune to dazzle, jamming, EMP |
2. Counter-Swarm Doctrine and Platform Layer
Venture-Backable Startups (Dual-Use, High-Growth Potential)
| Company Type | Description | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Autonomous swarm defense OS | Platform-neutral OS to detect, track, and engage thousands of inbound autonomous threats | Must integrate with onboard EW, CIWS, drone nets |
| C-UxS munitions + launchers | Directed energy, microwave, kinetic net, or swarming decoys launched from ships or trucks | Fast deployment + mass production + easy reload = high value |
| Blue force coordination platforms | Tactical cloud to link ships, drones, and infantry into a single swarm-resistant network | Real-time kill chain integrity matters more than single system precision |
Traditional Infrastructure / Non-Venture
| System Type | Description |
|---|---|
| CIWS upgrades | Close-In Weapons Systems adapted for high-saturation drone swarms |
| Aegis modernization | Updating legacy C2 to handle 1000+ tracks/targets |
| Training pipelines | Navy/Joint force doctrine for man-unmanned teaming against mass drone threats |
3. Civilian/Maritime Overlay Detection
Venture-Backable Startups (Dual-Use, High-Growth Potential)
| Company Type | Description | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Multimodal maritime ISR AI | Detect & classify civilian-military behavior using AIS spoofing detection, EO/IR patterning | Must fuse public + military sensor data in real time |
| Edge compute radar + EO nodes | Portable systems to monitor choke points with sensor fusion (RF + optical + acoustic) | Plug-and-play sensors for ports, island bases, and merchant ship integration |
| Synthetic data generation for ship types | AI models trained on simulated hybrid maritime behavior (civilian converted to military) | Valuable as foundational model for ISR AI stack |
Traditional Infrastructure / Non-Venture
| System Type | Description |
|---|---|
| Global maritime data sharing agreements | NATO-EU-private fusion centers for dynamic threat correlation |
| Port surveillance networks | Long-range sensors and infrastructure hardening for Asian and NATO ports |
| Shipboard ISR retrofits | Civilian cargo ships with passive ISR/ESM for early threat detection |
4. Real-Time Adaptive Kill Chain for Ambiguous Contacts
Venture-Backable Startups (Dual-Use, High-Growth Potential)
| Company Type | Description | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kill chain orchestration AI | Software that reprioritizes targets, reassigns drones, and resolves ID in real-time | Needs edge decision capability + explainability under ROE |
| Dynamic rules of engagement engines | Layered AI/ML to enable human-in-the-loop lawful targeting against ambiguous signatures | Must be certifiable under LOAC (Law of Armed Conflict) and IHL standards |
| Cognitive EW integration | AI that selects and activates optimal jamming / spoofing strategy per target profile | Fast-to-field, pre-configured EW behaviors as a service |
Traditional Infrastructure / Non-Venture
| System Type | Description |
|---|---|
| Command authority review pipelines | Legal and strategic protocols for man-machine teaming in kinetic strikes |
| National-level SIGINT deconfliction | Ensuring overlapping U.S., UK, EU SIGINT doesn’t produce conflicting ROE signals |
| Tactical HQ modernization | Staff augmentation with AI-aided targeting cell workflows |
5. Defense of Cognitive Infrastructure
(i.e., protecting not just data centers, but attention, perception, and belief formation)
Venture-Backable Startups (Dual-Use, High-Growth Potential)
| Company Type | Description | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Deepfake detection and provenance | Real-time detection of synthetic videos/images used for tactical psychological ops | High growth potential in military + commercial security sectors |
| AI models for intent attribution | Detecting adversary cognitive shaping (not just disinfo), using pattern recognition across platforms | Differentiator: from “what was said” to “why it was seeded” |
| Secure digital identity verification | Systems to validate human operators in decentralized, denied environments | Especially relevant for military communicators, journalists, emergency responders |
Traditional Infrastructure / Non-Venture
| System Type | Description |
|---|---|
| National digital information defense strategy | Integration of public broadcast, platform moderation, and military-grade detection |
| Civil-military media playbooks | Protocols for coordinated, truthful rapid response to visual disinfo attacks |
| Cyber hardening of public utilities and narrative platforms | DNS, cellular, and broadcast channels protected from spoof or hijack |
Summary Table – Where Venture Fits
| Readiness Domain | Venture-Backable Systems | Traditional Only |
|---|---|---|
| C2 Redundancy | Comms OS, SDR, mesh networks | LEO constellations, fiber links |
| Counter-Swarm | C-UAS AI, portable DEW, swarm OS | Naval upgrades, doctrine/training |
| Maritime Detection | ISR AI, synthetic training data | Port infrastructure, AIS frameworks |
| Adaptive Kill Chains | AI-enabled targeting & ROE layers | ROE policy, staff modernization |
| Cognitive Infrastructure | Deepfake detection, secure ID | Media strategy, civilian comms policy |
This was Part II.
What’s missing is the underground layer — the shadow layer that enables, conceals, and subverts kinetic and digital operations. In doctrine and insurgency studies, this isn’t peripheral — it’s foundational. U.S. Army TC 18-01 and USASOC’s classic volumes (“Human Factors Considerations of Undergrounds in Insurgencies” and “Undergrounds in Insurgency, Revolutionary, and Resistance Warfare”) identify this as one of the core components of unconventional warfare (alongside auxiliary and guerrilla forces).
In the context of my NATO counter-swarm investment thesis or fragplan prep, underground systems would map to five strategic vectors that enable denial, deception, and resilience under high fog-of-war scenarios.
This will be Part III. Tomorrow.